China May ‘Crash’ in Next 9 to 12 Months, Faber Says

Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.

The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting “heavy,” Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is “not a particularly good omen,” he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.

“The market is telling you that something is not quite right,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today. “The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.”

An index tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.8 percent today, the most in two weeks, after the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time this year. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 12 percent this year, Asia’s worst performer, as policy makers seek to rein in a lending boom that’s spurred record gains in property prices. China’s markets are shut for a holiday today.

Copper touched a seven-week low and BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, fell the most since February on concern spending in the world’s third-largest economy will slow and after Australia boosted taxes on commodities producers. Rio Tinto Ltd., the third-largest, slid as much as 6 percent.

Chanos, Rogoff

Faber joins hedge fund manager Jim Chanos and Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a crash in China.

China is “on a treadmill to hell” because it’s hooked on property development for driving growth, Chanos said in an interview last month. As much as 60 percent of the country’s gross domestic product relies on construction, he said. Rogoff said in February a debt-fueled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade.

The government has banned loans for third homes and raised mortgage rates and down-payment requirements for second-home purchases. Prices rose 11.7 percent across 70 cities in March from a year earlier, the most since data began in 2005.

The government has stopped short of raising interest rates to contain property prices. Within an hour of the central bank announcement on reserve ratios, Finance Minister Xie Xuren said that officials remained committed to expansionary policies to cement the nation’s recovery.

Stocks ‘Fully Priced’

The nation’s economy grew 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in almost three years. The government projects gross domestic product growth for the year of about 8 percent.

The clampdown on property speculation may prompt investors to turn to the nation’s stock market, Faber said. Still, shares are “fully priced” and Chinese investors may instead become “big buyers” of gold, he said.

BlackRock Inc. is among money managers reducing their holdings on Chinese stocks on expectations that economic growth has peaked. The BlackRock Emerging Markets Fund has widened its “underweight” position for China versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to about 7.5 percent from 4.6 percent at the end of March, the fund’s London-based co-manager Dan Tubbs said.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of China Ltd, the nation’s three largest banks, are trading near their lowest valuations on record as rising profits are eclipsed by concern bad loans will increase.

Local Governments

Citigroup Inc. warned in March that in a “worst case scenario,” the non-performing loans of local-government investment vehicles, used to channel money to stimulus projects, could swell to 2.4 trillion yuan by 2011.

Housing prices nationwide may fall as much as 20 percent in the second half of the year on government measures to curb speculation, BNP Paribas said April 23. Under a stress test conducted by the Shanghai branch of the China Banking Regulatory Commission in February, local banks’ ratio of delinquent mortgages would triple should home prices in the country’s commercial center decline 10 percent.

Shanghai is projecting as many as 70 million visitors to the $44 billion World Expo, more than 10 times the number who traveled to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. More than 433,000 people visited the 5.3 square-kilometer (3.3 square-mile) park on its first weekend.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aFaODIq8xczc

 

Faber: Don’t Ignore India

The rising Asian powerhouse is adding middle-class consumers at a heady pace, writes Dr. Marc Faber of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report.

I found it remarkable that at a recent Barron’s roundtable discussion in New York where a number of prominent strategists and portfolio managers had gathered, India—the world’s second-most populous country, with more than a billion people and an economy that is growing at around 8% per annum—wasn’t mentioned once.

In the year to March 2009, India added 125 million mobile phone subscribers! And whereas Indian auto sales are tiny compared to China’s vehicle sales (running currently at an annual rate of over 12 million units and up over 90% year on year), they are nevertheless up 39% year on year, with an annual rate of 1.6 million sales.

India’s middle class is estimated at 170 million (half the population of the US), and the country has one of the lowest vehicle-penetration rates in the world. Given that India also has one of the youngest populations—half of its 1.1 billion-plus people are less than 25 years old, compared to 42% in Brazil, 36% in China, and less than 30% in the developed nations—car sales will undoubtedly continue to soar in the next few years. In this respect, we should also take into account that India’s population will continue to grow rapidly and will exceed China’s population before 2030.

McKinsey estimates that by 2025, India’s middle class (households with disposable incomes of from 200,000 to one million Rupees a year) will increase to close to 600 million people, or more than 40% of the population.

This is not to say that India is free of problems. Its rapid population growth will be challenging. India’s land mass is only a third that of China or the United States, yet its population will exceed 1.4 billion in 20 years’ time. With close to 20% of the world’s population, India has just 4% of the world’s water resources and is likely to suffer in future from water scarcity.

Tensions between India and China [could increase over disputed Himalayan territory and] also in the Indian Ocean, where China has been involved in a number of port development projects.

Individual investors may wish to invest in New York-listed Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund or individual companies such as Infosys and ICICI Bank a very well-managed bank.

I should stress that I am far from certain about current stock prices providing an ideal entry point; however, given the country’s size and economic potential, investors who either have no exposure to India’s economy and vibrant corporate sector or are massively underweight Indian stocks should gradually become more involved in this promising country.

Source: http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/global.asp?aid=GlobalPer-18937

 

Markets in a spin over Obama talk

Stocks, commodities, gold and crude oil tumbled on Friday as investors see the end of a great liquidity cycle coming to an end, as the US moves to rein in proprietary trading by banks, and central banks begin to roll back easy monetary policies to curb inflationary expectations.

Indian shares rebounded from their worst levels, but still ended near a month low. The S&P 500 Index was down 0.5%, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 2.7%, oil, gold and aluminium fell by at least 1%.

“Comments from the US government on restraining banks’ investment activities weighed down sentiment because it is feared that any such move would hurt fund inflow,” said NK Garg, CEO, Sahara Mutual Fund.

The 30-share Sensex fell 1.1%, or 191.46 points, to close at 16,859.6. The 50-share S&P CNX Nifty fell 1.1% to 5,036. In the broader market, losers outnumbered gainers by 2043 to 842 on BSE.

“Banks will no longer be allowed to own, invest in or sponsor hedge funds, private equity funds or proprietary trading operations for their own profit, unrelated to serving their customers,” US President Barack Obama said on Thursday.

Asset classes across the board lost value after Mr Obama unveiled a plan to limit trading by banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America to reduce the risk to financial system, which was propped up by taxpayers money last year after banks incurred losses of trillions of dollars. These banks’ trading was a major reason for the record performance of emerging markets last year, including India which gained 81%. So, any restriction on them could reduce investments from the West to emerging markets.

Foreign institutions net sold shares worth Rs 2,415.4 crore while their domestic counterparts net bought shares worth Rs 1,954 crore, according to provisional data from NSE.

Furthermore, central banks, at least in emerging markets, are expected to start raising interest from record lows, as accelerating economies threaten high inflation.

While China grew 10.7% in the latest quarter creating a fear of asset price bubbles, food price inflation in India — above 15% — is straining household budgets.

Even the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which have the lowest policy rates, may start withdrawing some liquidity measures launched at the peak of the credit crisis, even as they hold on to low rates to avoid derailing a fragile economic recovery.

“The great liquidity cycle that began about a year ago is starting to draw to a close,” said Citigroup’s Asia equity strategist Markus Rosgen. “The Citi global excess liquidity indicator has already begun to roll over and is decelerating… Asia’s not immune,” Mr Rosgen said in a recent report.

Foreign institutions net bought Indian shares worth over $17 billion in 2009. The Reserve Bank of India in its January 29 meeting is expected to act to cool down prices and the finance minister Pranab Mukherjee may rollback tax cuts next month.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/market-news/Markets-in-a-spin-over-Obama-talk/articleshow/5490270.cms

 

A year for all asset classes

The Indian investor would have generated healthy portfolio gains this year; with no asset class acting as a drag on the other.

The year witnessed a rise in valuations across asset classes such as equities, gold and realty.

If 2008 was a year when most asset classes failed to perform, 2009 was one when almost every popular asset class provided an opportunity to build wealth. Be it equities, debt, gold or real estate, the Indian investor would have generated healthy portfolio gains this year; with no asset class acting as a drag on the other.

Surprised? Well, here’s how you would have made a quick buck by just staying invested round the year, across asset classes.

Debt for all seasons

Take the simple time-tested debt option; fixed deposits with banks. Looking back, you would be surprised to know that these fixed return investment havens lured investors with interest rates as high as 12 per cent in end of 2008. Of course, the beginning of any lucrative offer or rally is often overlooked.

Even if you had been a late entrant and missed the 12 per cent rates, locking in to fixed deposits in January 2009 would have still guaranteed an 11 per cent interest rate.

Missed the bus there and watched bank interest rates sadly dwindle? Never mind, a series of non-convertible debentures issued by companies such as Tata Capital, Shriram Transport Finance and L&T Finance at various time periods between February and August offered interest rates between 10 and 12 per cent. It’s not just the interest rates that made these offers noteworthy. These non-convertible debentures (NCDs) are traded in the stock exchanges and can be sold anytime.

Take the case of Tata Capital NCD offered in February. It currently trades 22 per cent above its offer price. A rather neat return from a debt option.

And as if that was not enough, corporate deposits – tagged risky in the initial part of the year given the high leverage of their underlying companies – soon provided comfort with improving financials. Interest rates of 9-12 per cent offered (and still on offer) by many creditworthy finance companies such as Sundaram Finance or Mahindra Finance followed by a number of corporates ensured that investors were not short of good debt options for most part of the year.

Debt mutual funds too, played their part well in ensuring that investors were not disappointed.

Rich, richer …

If debt was not exactly your idea of building wealth, then let’s move on the most-loved and at times the most-hated asset class – equities.

Returns of 120 per cent from the March lows would only have been a dream for many as few could have timed their entry in to equities in March, given the undercurrent of pessimism then. However, even if you had waited a while and invested sometime during May (when mutual funds too derived conviction to move fully in equities from their deep cash positions), chances are that you would have made a neat returns of about 50 per cent (returns generated by the broad market index CNX 500, during this period). And had you taken the mutual fund route, your returns could have been much higher.

Real opportunity

Not often do you get a real deal – when a reasonable property price and low home loan rates are offered at the same time. Well, 2009 is one such year.

While it would be hard to generalise, property prices were available at a bargain beginning February and extending up to June-July. To enable you to purchase at bargains, interest rates offered by banks also dipped to as low as 8 per cent (and still remains so). However, property prices, especially in the middle income offerings, were not available at discounts for too long as select areas across cities witnessed appreciation.

Between June and September alone capital values of residential properties in key cities such as Mumbai, Gurgaon and select parts of Chennai and Bangalore have seen a rise of between 10 and 25 per cent. Had you been among the smart investors who bought a property before June, you may already be sitting on substantial gains.

Not just property prices, homes loans with interest rates kept fixed for 3-5 years at 8-9 per cent could certainly be called some deal. And to think, a home loan would have cost you as much as 12 per cent a year ago. If that does not make an impact sample the difference in terms of EMI: A Rs 20-lakh, 15-year home loan at 12 per cent would have resulted in an EMI of about Rs 23,000 a month. At 8 per cent, there is a drastic reduction by Rs 4,000 a month to Rs 19,000.

The gold rush

Besides debt, if there was one asset class that endowed multiple opportunities to earn returns in 2009, it would have to be gold. Had you invested in gold (through exchange-traded funds) as early as January, this asset class would have yielded a good 20 per cent profit. Had you delayed your purchase to, say, June, the returns would have been 10 per cent – not too lucrative but nevertheless attractive for a safe asset class like gold that does not always generate returns that beat inflation.

So 2009 would certainly go down in history as one of those singular years where every asset class held by you added to your portfolio wealth; that is only if you had invested those cash holdings in to some of these options.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2009/12/27/stories/2009122751081100.htm

 

The financial panic is over: Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett, perhaps the world’s most admired investor, said on Thursday the financial panic that gripped the globe last year is a thing of the past, even as the US economy’s struggles persist.
“The financial panic is behind us,” the world’s second-richest person said at Columbia University’s business school. “Our economy was sputtering, still is sputtering some.”
Buffett, 79, nevertheless said there is greater opportunity for investments inside the United States than outside, noting that the US economy is far larger than any other.
He appeared at Columbia with Microsoft Corp founder Bill Gates, the world’s richest person and a Buffett friend and bridge partner.
Last month, preliminary government data showed the US economy expanded in the third quarter, the first three-month period of growth since the second quarter of 2008.
Nonetheless, the US unemployment rate last month reached 10.2%, the first double-digit reading in 26 years.
Buffett last week made a big bet on the US economy when his Berkshire Hathaway Inc agreed to pay about USD 26.4 billion for the 77% of railroad company Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp that it did not already own.
“There will be more people in this country, 10, 20, 30 years from now,” Buffett said. “They’ll be moving more and more goods back and forth to each other and the most environmentally friendly and cost-efficient way of doing that is railroads.”
Buffett said rail transport uses one-third less fuel and pollutes the air less than trucks, and that one train can supplant about 280 trucks.
Gates, who is also a Berkshire director, said other sectors might also boost the economy over the long term, including information technology, energy and medicine.
Separately, Buffett advised the US government not to coddle companies that need bailouts to survive or preserve capital.
“More sticks are called for,” he said.
Buffett gave Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner “high marks” for how they managed the financial crisis.
The billionaire has praised Bernanke in the past, while mocking Geithner’s stress tests for banks.

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/the-financial-panic-is-over-warren-buffett_424662.html

 

India Central Bank Begins Exit From Monetary Stimulus

India’s central bank took the first step toward withdrawing its record monetary stimulus as inflation pressures build, ordering lenders to keep more cash in government bonds.
“It may be appropriate to sequence the ‘exit’ in a calibrated way,” Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said today after increasing the statutory liquidity ratio to 25 percent from 24 percent and raising the inflation forecast. The central bank kept benchmark policy rates unchanged, while maintaining its economic growth forecast of 6 percent “with an upward bias.”
Stocks fell the most in two months after the statement spurred speculation the Reserve Bank of India will boost borrowing costs by year-end, eroding corporate profits. Today’s shift also signals intensifying global concern about consumer and asset-price increases, with Norway tomorrow forecast to follow Australia in raising rates this month.
“We will start to see G-20 economies exiting now, starting with the emerging ones and then the advanced countries,” said Mridul Saggar, the Mumbai-based chief economist at Kotak Securities Ltd. “In India’s case, growth is coming back on track and inflation is becoming quite a concern.”
The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive index fell 2.3 percent to 16,351.58 at 2:50 p.m. local time. The rupee extended losses to 0.7 percent, trading at 46.98 against the dollar.
Bonds Rise
Bonds rose because some banks will need to boost their holdings as a result of today’s move, said Murthy Nagarajan, a fund manager at Mirae Asset Global Investment in Mumbai. The yield on the 6.90 percent note due July 2019 fell 9 basis points to 7.32 percent, the biggest drop since Sept. 15, according to the central bank’s trading system.
Subbarao, who has injected 5.85 trillion rupees ($130 billion) of cash since September 2008 to protect the Indian economy from the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, said draining that money has become a “central issue in our policy matrix.” The liquidity injection was the equivalent to almost 9 percent of India’s gross domestic product, Asia’s third-largest.
The central bank said “unconventional” steps taken during the global meltdown in the past year can now be reversed to damp price gains, adding that reversing the “conventional measures is not considered appropriate for now.”
Subbarao maintained the reverse repurchase rate at 3.25 percent, the repurchase rate at 4.75 percent and the cash reserve ratio at 5 percent, in line with the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. He increased the inflation forecast for the year to March 31 to 6.5 percent from 5 percent.
Exporter Credit
The central bank cut the refinance limit to exporters to 15 percent of their eligible outstanding credit from 50 percent, and asked lenders to set aside more funds as provision for loans to property companies.
India becomes the second country, after Australia, among Group of 20 nations to take steps to boost borrowing costs, underscoring a rising threat of accelerating consumer and asset prices. At the same time, today’s decision risks damping a recovery from India’s weakest growth pace in six years.
Subbarao said today’s action wouldn’t affect the “liquidity position” of the banking system, since most commercial banks have government bond holdings amounting to 27.6 percent of their deposits.
Central banks globally have stepped up their vigil against inflation and asset-price increases.
Global Context
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased rates three weeks ago, citing costlier real estate. Norway’s Norges Bank is set to raise borrowing costs tomorrow, according to a Bloomberg survey. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong Tae said Oct. 23 that keeping rates at a record low may not be healthy for the economy.
At the U.S. Federal Reserve, officials under Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are reviewing whether recent gains in asset prices and narrowing credit spreads are justified as they try to ensure near- zero borrowing costs don’t create bubbles.
Subbarao said there are “definitive” indications that India’s economy is recovering. Accordingly, attention around the world has shifted from “managing the crisis to managing the recovery.” He said the prospects for Indian industry have become “more promising” and with the revival in the stock market and international financial markets, there will be a pick-up in investments.
Political Factor
The decision to signal tighter monetary conditions comes after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee told Bloomberg-UTV television channel on Oct. 8 that promoting economic growth and containing inflation are both important and the central bank shouldn’t “compromise” one for the other.
Subbarao is concerned about consumer-price inflation in India that’s running above 10 percent and may accelerate further after the weakest monsoon rains since 1972 create food shortages. India’s $1.2 trillion economy depends on the June to September rains to water crops.
India uses wholesale price data as its key inflation gauge; consumer price indexes are calculated on the basis of rural and urban workers and don’t capture the aggregate price picture.
Wholesale prices rose for a sixth week on Oct. 10, gaining 1.21 percent. Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC Group Plc in Singapore, expects the rate to hit 8 percent by March 31. Asset prices are also rising, evidenced by the 75 percent climb in the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive index since January.
“The central bank faces a very delicate situation to manage growth and inflation,” said Ravi Sud, chief financial officer at Hero Honda Motors Ltd., India’s biggest motorcycle maker. “On balance, inflation is the risk as it will hurt consumption and eventually hurt growth as well.”
It will be a “big challenge” to sustain Hero Honda’s profit margins because of rising commodity prices, Sud said last week. Hero Honda, based in New Delhi, is the Indian affiliate of Japan’s Honda Motor Co.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.Cc4PTq_Tgg

 

Valuations may be high, but India growth story is secure, feel FIIs

Indian markets are looking expensive and the continued inflows are being driven more by a desire to avoid underperformance rather than conviction in the fundamental story, say some of the leading foreign institutional investors (FIIs) invested in the India equities market.
After having net sold shares worth $8 billion in 2008, foreign investors have mopped up close to $12 billion worth of equities so far in 2009.
“Valuations are expensive (18 times FY10 earnings), relative to the rest of the world. But India’s growth story is more secure than many other countries. And there is a lot of liquidity in the world chasing growth. As such, institutional investors believe that the earnings growth and GDP are strong enough to sustain these valuations,” says Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, MD and Head-Research of BoA Merrill Lynch.
India has long been touted as being at an advantage, given that its growth is less co-related to that of the global economy. And with central banks around the world pumping in liquidity to kick-start their respective economies, the stock of money in the system has shot up drastically. With no return on deposits in any part of the world, there is a lot of money chasing the few growth economies.
But there are those who believe that this in itself calls for investors to exercise caution. “There is an element of risk in that if the newsflow is not as good as expected, the market may react adversely. The market needs pause to allow valuations to catch up with earnings growth. In the long term, this is good for markets,” added Mr Jaipuria. Sandeep Kothari, portfolio manager at Fidelity Mutual Fund is positive on the market but like most of his peers, is concerned about valuations.
“The economic cycle is turning and the business is strengthening. The question is how much markets have run up and what is in the price and what is not. One is worried you could see a last phase of frenzy like you saw in 2007. We are yet to see that kind of retail participation,” he added.
FIIs maintain that flows are unlikely to slow down till such time central banks start pulling back the stimulus money. There is a perception that markets are likely to surrender some of their recent gains before long. However, the general perception is that it is likely to be a gradual decline.
Whatever the case maybe, the recent upsurge has seen the Sensex overshoot most of the fair value targets set by foreign brokerage houses. While Citi had set a 15400 target for the Sensex, Deutsche Equities target was over 16000. “Our fair value Sensex target for the year is 16500. However, liquidity and high levels of risk appetite could lead the market to overshoot our fair value target in the short term. India remains a highly attractive market from a long-term perspective, offering a structural growth story,” said Abhay Laijawala, head of research, Deutsche Equities India.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/Valuations-may-be-high-but-India-growth-story-is-secure-feel-FIIs/articleshow/5074163.cms

 

‘We are cautiously optimistic’

The world markets are abuzz with talks of an earlier-than-expected economic revival. Yet, it makes sense to be cautiously optimistic, Bruno Leefeels Bruno Lee, regional head, wealth management, personal financial services, Asia-Pacific, HSBC. In a conversation with ET, he articulates his views on the wealth management in India and the impact of the regulatory changes on the mutual fund pricing structure. Excerpts:

Many feel that the worst is behind us. Would you agree?
There is some positive improvement in terms of economic data in the US market and Asia. Also, the fear factor has significantly reduced. But, I think we still need to be cautious as there are things that might crop up such as the unemployment situation. Overall, I would say we are cautiously optimistic.

What has been your advice to your high networth income (HNI) clients?
We feel that one should not wait till the market touches a record high to return to investing in equity. HNIs should review and rebalance their portfolios on a regular basis to ensure that they are comfortable with their exposure to risk and the changing environment. Further, to deal with volatility in the markets, diversifying into different asset classes is crucial. In India, where fixed income has been providing attractive returns, clients should have a strategy to allocate assets among equity and fixed income. Indian investors need to understand that the fixed income environment is quite attractive and the equity market is recovering. But outside India, in the US or eurozone, interest rates are low. There is a huge pool of cash sitting on the sidelines. When people’s risk appetite increases, BRIC market will attract a lot of inflow and that will push up the market to the next level.

How do you see the recent regulations on Mutual Fund (MF) pricing structure affecting the market?
Overall, MF penetration is low in India. The regulation ensures more transparency in pricing, which we support. But the other thing to be considered is the high cost of distribution. Bulk of people’s savings are still in fixed deposits, so many are not familiar with stocks/MFs. Thus, it requires a lot of education and financial planning support. Also, unlike stocks, MF is an ongoing service and maintenance cost is high for distributors. So, we are looking at pricing it correctly without sacrificing the service quality.

As a distributor of MFs, what shape is the new charge structure likely to take?
We are thinking along the direction of giving customers a choice. Some customers may do only one transaction for a one-time fee. They could be sophisticated and require relatively limited ongoing servicing. But other customers may need more frequent updates and ongoing services, for them we could charge a certain advisory fee. The charges will also depend on their needs, which are different for customers with lower investible surplus and ones with higher investible assets. We will have to look at customer needs, behaviour and requirements to design an appropriate way within the regulatory environment.

We took some time do our research on how best this could be done and are now on the verge of launching our charge structure. We want to ensure that this is a sustainable, profitable structure, otherwise, it could kill the whole distribution.

What kind of potential do you see in the wealth management space in India?
At HSBC, we are excited about opportunities in India. Some estimate the retail segment will grow at around 10% CAGR, from 900,000 in 2007, to over 1.6 million until 2013. The country has a large young population. As education is important in India, there is a need to save for the long-term — for kids’ education and retirement. We are well positioned to provide quality wealth management services to the mass-affluent segment to help fulfil their important goals in life.

Which are the markets that seem attractive at the moment?
Our quarterly global fund managers survey indicates that the relative allocation to equity market will improve during the third quarter. At the same time, within the global equity market, Asia (excluding Japan), particularly the Greater China region, will continue to attract more inflows because of the continued growth. And recently, we have seen the market reaching a relatively high level compared to March. Sensex in India has almost doubled in about six months’ time. So that is a sign that the money is flowing back into the market.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5035815.cms?flstry=1

 

U.S. Economy May See Its Slowest Recovery Since 1945

The U.S. recovery may be the slowest since World War II to regain all the ground lost during the recession, even if economists’ more optimistic forecasts for expansion turn out to be right.

The slump this time was so deep, said JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief economist Bruce Kasman, that the 3.5 percent average quarterly growth rate he sees in the next year won’t be enough to bring gross domestic product back to its $13.42 trillion pre- crisis peak. That’s in contrast with the last 10 recoveries, when GDP returned to its previous levels within 12 months.
The result: A year after the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy helped drive GDP down to an annualized $12.89 trillion in the second quarter, there’s still “plenty of malaise,” Kasman said. Unemployment may remain close to the current 26-year high of 9.7 percent through 2010, upsetting voters ahead of mid-term Congressional elections and forcing officials to keep interest rates near zero and the budget deficit around this year’s record $1.6 trillion.

“This will be the most disappointing recovery,” said Kasman, whose forecast compares with the median estimate of 2.5 percent growth in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The U.S. might not recover the 6.9 million jobs and the $13.9 trillion in wealth lost during the recession until about the middle of the decade, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. The unemployment rate may never get back down to the 4.4 percent low of 2007, he said.

Cyclical Revival

Stock prices may take three or four years to reach their previous highs as the cyclical revival of the economy gradually boosts corporate profits, said Allen Sinai, chief economist at consulting group Decision Economics in New York.

“It will be a bull market, but not a roaring bull market,” Sinai said. He sees the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index rising to 1,100 by the end of 2009 from its close of 1,042.73 on Sept. 11. The index hit a record 1,565.15 on Oct, 9, 2007, and then fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009.

Companies, particularly retailers such as Macy’s Inc., may have to adjust as consumers buy less. Household spending as a share of GDP might fall to its long-run historical average of 65 percent from 70 percent in the past decade as people opt to save more, according to economists Peter Berezin and Alex Kelston, of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Biggest Drop

The restrained performance that is forecast for the economy reflects both the depth and the origins of the recession, which began in December 2007. The 3.9 percent decline in gross domestic product was the most since World War II.

While Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan’s largest shipping line, has been able to raise rates on container services to the U.S., it continues to lose money on the business. Mikitoshi Kai, head of investor relations for the Tokyo-based company, said in an interview that “we need to increase rates by a lot more to make a profit.”

The decline has been a “balance-sheet recession,” says Richard Koo, chief economist at Tokyo-based Nomura Research Institute. Those take time to recover from, as once highly leveraged banks and consumers gradually reduce their debt, he said.

Fed Outlook

Policy makers may have to keep interest rates low and the federal budget deficit high to push the economy forward as financial institutions and households adjust. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow central-bank colleagues might hold their target for the federal funds rate between zero and 0.25 percent through 2010, said Kasman at JPMorgan in New York, the second-largest U.S. bank. That’s the rate at which commercial banks lend each other money overnight.

“The Fed may need to maintain fairly low interest rates over a period of many years,” Berezin and Kelston, of New York- based Goldman, the fifth-biggest U.S. bank, wrote in a Sept. 9 report.
On the fiscal front, the deficit will total $1.29 trillion in the year starting Oct. 1, boosted by a $787 billion stimulus package and aid to banks, according to Maury Harris, chief economist in New York at UBS Securities, a unit of Zurich-based investment bank UBS AG.

“I suspect the deficit will continue to balloon for years,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund who is now a professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

‘Wild Card’

The “wild card” is the political impact the economy’s chronic difficulties will have on mid-term Congressional elections in November 2010 and beyond, Kasman said.

Democratic lawmakers in the House of Representatives are particularly vulnerable if voters blame President Barack Obama for a sour economy, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor for the Rothenberg Political Report in Washington.

Since 1945, the party that controls the White House has lost an average of 16 House seats in a president’s first midterm election, according to the Cook Political Report. Obama’s Democratic Party currently has 256 seats in the chamber, compared with 178 for the Republicans.

In the past, deep recessions have often been followed by rapid recoveries. That’s what happened in 1982-83 as the economy surpassed its previous peak in about six months, thanks to a 7.2 percent surge in growth. Behind the turnaround: aggressive monetary easing by the Fed, which brought short-term interest rates down to 8.5 percent from 15 percent in 1982.

No ‘Gas’

“We thought that if we really stepped on the gas, the economy would take off, and it did,” said Lyle Gramley, a senior economic adviser for New York-based Soleil Securities who was a member of the Fed’s board at the time. That option isn’t available to the central bank now as the overnight interbank rate is at zero.

The Fed has also been hampered by a credit crunch that has restricted the flow of money from lenders to borrowers, Gramley said. Banks, faced with mounting credit losses, have tightened terms and standards on loans to businesses and households since the middle of 2007, according to the Fed’s tri-monthly survey of lending officers.

That’s akin to the situation in 1991-92, when tight credit in the wake of the savings-and-loan crisis restrained the recovery, according to Gramley. It took about nine months for the economy to return to pre-recession production levels as growth clocked in at an average 2 percent.

Borrowing Falls

Household borrowing fell by a record $21.6 billion in July to $2.5 trillion, the Fed reported on Sept. 9. The drop was the sixth straight monthly decline, the longest since the 1991 credit crunch.

Behind the fall: Banks are becoming stingier in handing out credit while consumers are growing more wary of taking on more debt. The savings rate rose to a 14-year high of 6 percent in May before falling to 4.2 percent in July, government data show. It was 1.3 percent at the start of 2008.

Retailers are taking notice of the increased consumer thriftiness, including Cincinnati-based Macy’s. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren told Bloomberg Television on Sept. 8 that the second-largest U.S. department-store company has reduced inventories “fairly significantly.”

Home builders may have to adjust, too. Sales of new houses jumped 9.6 percent in July, the most since February 2005, to a 433,000 annual pace. That was still less than half the 923,000 average since the start of 2000.

The increase in sales has helped boost the price of copper. Copper for delivery in three months closed Sept. 11 at $6,250 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. That compares with $3,231 on Jan. 2 and a high of $8,730 in April of last year.

“There were huge excesses built up during the expansion,” Sinai said. “It may take the economy a few years to get back to its previous peak.”

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBj5AeyQqun8

 

Lessons from the world financial crisis

(D. H. Pai Panandiker is President of RPG Foundation. The views expressed in this column are his own)
By D. H. Pai Panandiker
The collapse of Lehman triggered the world financial crisis this time last year. Stock markets crashed; credit was frozen and banks were scurrying for cash; crude oil prices dipped and gold prices shot up; investment shrank.
Finally, the financial crisis translated into recession with severe loss of employment and income. With the inter-linking of economies no country escaped these drastic consequences.
India was hit badly but avoided recession. Nevertheless growth dropped and is yet to recover. FIIs repatriated more than $13 billion and deepened the fall in stock prices.
Sensex plunged 62 per cent, much more than Dow Jones. The RBI had to draw down reserves. The rupee fell 20 per cent, industrial production declined and exports slumped.
Indian banks, except probably two, did not have exposure to sub-prime debt since they did not have much international business. Besides, the regulations of RBI did not permit excessive debt:equity ratio. Hence Indian banks were largely unaffected.
The international crisis prompted the Indian Government to act. That was more to avert recession than to back up the financial system.
Stimulus packages were introduced mainly aimed at increasing demand by reducing excise duties and increasing investment in infrastructure. The RBI did pump in liquidity with cuts in CRR, SLR, and the repo and reverse repo rates. Recovery has started but progress is slow.
There are lessons to learn from the crisis and new initiative to be taken.
First, with large infusion of cash by Federal Reserve, it is likely that the dollar will weaken in future against other currencies. RBI has a large part of its foreign exchange reserves in dollars and should therefore change the composition of reserves in favour of the euro and gold.
Second, although most banks are owned by Government, they should be financially sound on their own. Therefore the capital base of banks has to be sound and conform to the new Basel standards. Banks should be modernized and to attain economic size through mergers.
Third, financial supervision has to be strong. That also requires that there should be coordination among the concerned agencies like the RBI, fiscal authorities, Sebi, etc.
Fourth, regulation should go hand in hand with innovation of financial instruments. The financial crisis was to a large extent spurred by financial instruments like Collateralized debt obligations (CDO).
Fifth, RBI should keep constant watch on liquidity requirements. The financial system in the U.S. would have collapsed but for the timely release of cash by Federal Reserve. The measures taken by RBI were a little too late.
Sixth, Government should curb fiscal deficit to ease pressure on the market and continue to take steps to open up the economy, whether in respect of trade, convertibility of the rupee, external commercial borrowing and foreign investment, since the benefits would be much more than the safety of a closed system.
It appears that the worst is now over and the salvage operations are complete. It is time to reform the system to enable it function smoothly and efficiently under good supervision.

Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idINIndia-42327820090909?sp=true